Analysis of polyethylene production and demand sit

Analysis of polyethylene production and demand situation in the second half of the year

at the beginning of this year, the tension in the Gulf led to high international oil prices. Affected by this, the domestic polyethylene market price rose sharply. In mid February, the price of LDPE reached 7900 yuan (ton price, the same below), a new high since this year; By April, as the war in Iraq basically subsided and SARS broke out in China, the expected factors of rising oil prices disappeared, the consumer market shrank, and the domestic polyethylene price fell rapidly; In mid May, the price of LDPE fell to 6300 yuan, a new bottom since this year; After late May, when the international crude oil price rebounded and the domestic SARS epidemic was gradually controlled, the confidence of polyethylene production and distribution enterprises recovered, especially stimulated by the rise in international ethylene prices, the market price gradually rebounded. At present, the mainstream price of low-density polyethylene is 7000 yuan, linear low-density polyethylene is 6800 yuan, and high-density polyethylene is 6500 yuan

from January to May this year, the cumulative domestic production of polyethylene was 1657600 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 17.49%; The apparent consumption in the domestic market was 3125700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.12%. As predicted at the beginning of this report, polyethylene imports have decreased significantly this year, with a cumulative import of 1.4749 million tons from January to may, a year-on-year decrease of 26 21％。 The main variety of import reduction is low-density polyethylene, with 618900 tons imported from January to may, a year-on-year decrease of 45%. The main reason for the decrease in imports was the high price of polyethylene in the international market caused by the Iraq war at first, and then the consumption level fell due to the impact of SARS on agriculture. At the same time, the domestic polyethylene production capacity increased rapidly, so importers were more cautious about the market

there are many adverse factors in the polyethylene market in the second half of the year: the SARS epidemic has greatly affected agricultural benefits and farmers' income. The reduction of income will inevitably lead to the reduction of agricultural inputs, and the consumption of polyethylene will be greatly affected by agricultural films, irrigation pipes, packaging materials for agricultural and sideline products; Due to the implementation of the new environmental pollution charge regulations and the strengthening of environmental protection testing, polyethylene packaging materials will be further restricted; As the whole set of prices is also relatively expensive, countries have increased the protection of fishery resources, reduced the use of materials and assembly time, and the management of fishing season is becoming more and more strict, which restricts the consumption of high-density polyethylene used for fishing materials; Domestic June, July, November and December have been the off-season for the sales of plastic raw materials, which will have a certain impact on the sales and price of polyethylene

despite the above adverse factors, the proactive fiscal policy adopted by the state will further support economic growth. It is predicted that despite the impact of SARS, China's GDP will still maintain a growth rate of 7% - 8% in 2003, which will effectively promote the Dutch student Boyan slat to invent a system that can use ocean currents to automatically clear the ocean. The raw material market is active and the demand is growing, and the apparent consumption will still show a rapid upward trend. With the implementation of a number of national key projects, the demand for various pipe materials, wire and cable materials will further increase in the second half of this year. Although June and July are the traditional off-season for sales, considering the overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical in June and Qilu Petrochemical in August, and the shutdown and overhaul of some large ethylene plants or polyethylene plants in surrounding countries in the second half of the year, the supply of goods will be reduced, which will form a certain support for the polyethylene market. At the end of August, with some downstream manufacturers preparing materials, the market will start the second round of peak sales season. As Iraq will resume oil exports, the international crude oil price will fall to a certain extent, and the production cost of polyethylene will also fall. It is estimated that the domestic demand for polyethylene in 2003 will be the same as that in 2002, and the output will reach 3.9 million tons, an increase of 340000 tons compared with that in 2002. However, considering the reduction of import volume, the market will be in a state of balancing from the time of sample discharge to the impact time of no more than 2 seconds. Liufangbin